Chelsea vs Borussia Dortmund: Champions League betting preview & predictions.

06.03.2023 14:18:36 Ashlee Kiddell
Chelsea FC fans with Chelsea flags.
  • Chelsea will need to overturn a 1-0 deficit if they are to get past Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie on Tuesday. 
  • Both sides are dealing with a host of selection issues ahead of the match, with the likes of Thiago Silva, Mason Mount and Karim Adeyemi all not expected to play. 
  • Dortmund will be aiming to continue their impressive 2023 form and have won every match since the turn of the year. 

 

Injury News 

The Blues’ plethora of selection issues will continue against Dortmund here with Benoit Badiashile, David Datro Fofana, Noni Madueke and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang all unregistered for the Champions League squad. 

Mount is also suspended due to yellow card accumulation, whilst veteran defender Thiago Silva is sidelined for the next six weeks due to knee ligament damage. However, Reece James is expected to return after missing the Leeds United match at the weekend.

N’Golo Kante is stepping up his recovery after suffering a hamstring injury in August and has started to train with the squad but still needs time to return to fitness. Christian Pulisic is also nearing a return after missing the last two months with a knee problem. However, Tuesday’s match is a little too soon for the USA international. 

Edouard Mendy, Cesar Azpilicueta and Armando Broja are also still dealing with their respective injury issues. Azpilicueta is nearing a return after suffering a concussion against Southampton last month, whilst Mendy has returned to training after dealing with a fractured finger. Broja won’t return until the new season. 

For the visitors, they will be without Julian Ryerson who is suspended, with Raphael Guerreiro expected to be recalled to the starting lineup. Adeyemi, who scored the only goal in the first leg, is still in doubt and has now missed the last two games due to injury. 

Attacking problems worsen for BVB as they are also set to be without Donyell Malen after he missed the last match due to an ankle injury, whilst Youssoufa Moukoko has currently missed the last four games due to injury as well. 

Backup goalkeeper Alexander Meyer had to start against Leipzig last time out, with starting ‘keeper Gregor Kobel only fit for the bench but he is likely to return to the lineup for his one. Full-back Mateu Morey is not expected to feature, however, and has only just returned to training. 

 

Champions League Form 

Dortmund returned to winning ways in Europe after they picked up a 1-0 victory over Chelsea at the Westfalenstadion last month, having drawn their final three Group G matches en route to knockout qualification. 

Adeyemi was the hero as he scored a magnificent solo goal to secure the victory for BVB. They will have to try and eek out a win this time around, however, with a weakened forward line available. Nevertheless, Edin Terzic will be confident of his side’s chances, having lost just one game out of their seven Champions League fixtures this season. 

Despite suffering defeat in the first leg, Chelsea will take confidence in the fact that they did manage to create a host of chances in Germany. An Expected Goals figure of 2.09 failed to yield a goal but heading back to Stamford Bridge with home support may help push the Blues to victory. 

 

UCL 22/23 Key Stats: 

Goals For: Chelsea 10, Dortmund 11

Goals Against: Chelsea 5, Dortmund 5

Both Teams To Score %: Chelsea 42.9%, Dortmund 57.1%

Over 2.5 Goals %: Chelsea 42.9%, Dortmund 42.9%

 

Head-to-head

Last month’s clash at Signal Iduna Park was the first meeting in the two clubs’ history and Dortmund came out on top with the narrow victory. The Blues will be searching for revenge, especially since they squandered a number of chances in the first leg. 

BVB have already bettered last season’s Champions League group stage exit but will still be hoping to reach the quarter-finals with a one-goal lead heading into the second leg. That would also equal their 2020/21 finish after they got knocked out by Manchester City at the quarter-final stage. 

Chelsea have had great success in Europe of late and were even crowned champions back in 2021 with head coach Thomas Tuchel at the helm. However, they were knocked out by eventual winners Real Madrid at the quarter-final stage last season. 

 

Domestic Form

Graham Potter picked up an imperative victory at home to Leeds on Saturday as his side edged a 1-0 win. Wesley Fofana scored the only goal of the game as Chelsea found their first three points since January. They had suffered a defeat in all three of the previous matches so will at least head into this one with some form of confidence to try and overturn the deficit. 

Despite BVB’s issues going forward, they still managed to record a 2-1 victory over fourth-placed RB Leipzig last week thanks to goals from Marco Reus and Emre Can. Fortunately for Dortmund, their club legend has come into form at the right time and has scored two goals in his last three matches. 

Confidence is sky high for the German outfit since they have won every match that they have played since returning from the World Cup and winter break. They look good value to topple Bayern Munich’s reign in the Bundesliga and have every chance of winning their first title since 2012. 

 

Prediction & Suggested Bets 

Chelsea 1-1 Borussia Dortmund A.E.T We are expecting a close game between the two sides with neither team being at full strength due to a host of selection issues. However, we think that Dortmund’s momentum will be enough to see them edge past the Blues and secure the victory in extra time. 

 

Total Match Goals Under 2.5 @ 10/11 Chelsea have been struggling in front of goal of late and have scored just two goals in their last five matches in all competitions. With Dortmund also dealing with injuries to their main attacking outlets in Adeyemi, Malen and Moukoko, we can see this one being a low scoring game. 

 

Jude Bellingham To Be Carded @ 7/4 The Englishman will be determined to prove himself on English soil and we can see a scrappy and cagey affair at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night. Bellingham picked up a yellow in the first leg and also has six yellow cards to his name in the Bundesliga this term. 

 

 

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