Which EFL team has the best chance of establishing themselves in the Premier League’s ‘closed shop’?

• For the second season in a row, all three of the Premier League’s promoted teams have gone back down straight away
• Teams like Leicester City, Southampton and Burnley are struggling to survive in the Premier League 
• The financial benefits of being in the top flight mean promoted teams struggle to gain a foothold when they do come up

For the second season in a row, all three promoted teams Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton have been relegated back down to the Championship. Last year, it was Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton Town.

Down in the Championship, Burnley have been promoted straight back to the top flight and Leeds United also return after two seasons away, winning the title. Sheffield United could well go back up through the play-offs for an immediate return too. It’s only Luton who didn’t have the same success, getting relegated to League One instead. 

While promoted teams will always be among the favourites for relegation, it feels more difficult for teams to establish themselves in the top flight right now. So, which team currently outside the Premier League has the best chance of breaking into what is in danger of becoming a closed shop? And why are teams finding it more difficult now?

Mid-table teams have strengthened

Part of this is down to the sheer quality in the Premier League. There’s not only the so-called ‘Big Six’, but Newcastle United, Aston Villa, and even clubs like Brighton & Hove Albion and Brentford continuing to impress. Wolverhampton Wanderers, who have spent most of the season in the places above the relegation zone, boast a trio of Brazilian internationals. How are teams coming up from the Championship supposed to compete? 

The days when a team could get promoted and finish in mid-table (or higher) the following year could be gone for good. Wolves finished seventh in 2018/19 when they came up, but that feels almost alien now. 

Nottingham Forest were promoted in 2022 after winning the play-offs and finished 16th and 17th in their first two seasons back in the top flight. While they deserve plenty of plaudits for kicking on and being in Champions League contention this season, they earned the record of the lowest points total of any team to avoid relegation a year ago, and that was after incredible transfer spending.

Also last season, they were deducted four points for breaching profit and sustainability rules, but breaking the rules and taking the hit looks as if it’s helped them establish themselves in the Premier League. 

Brighton, Bournemouth and Brentford have only established themselves in the Premier League in the last decade, and that’s down to the way the clubs have operated. Villa, promoted back to the top flight in 2019-20, only secured survival on the final day of their first season back but have kicked on into the Champions League since then, the shrewd appointment of manager Unai Emery in November 2022 a major factor, as has been sensible ownership and quality investment. 

Automatic promotion – and a longer Premier League stay? 

Burnley and Leeds will both fancy their chances of enjoying a longer Premier League stay. For both, there are question marks over their managers; Scott Parker and Daniel Farke have both managed in the Premier League before but neither have had much success at that level. With that in mind there are already rumours about Farke’s future at Leeds. 

The last time Burnley went down, it was under Vincent Kompany, whose style of play was criticised at times as not being a good fit for a weaker team in the Premier League. Under Parker, they have an extremely mean defence, only conceding 16 league goals this term and could be a more difficult nut to crack. 

For Leeds, it will be interesting to see how top scorer Joël Piroe fares in the Premier League, while players like Daniel James and Ethan Ampadu already have experience in the higher division. If Italy international Willy Gnonto stays at the club, too, he could be a real difference-maker with another couple of years of experience under his belt.

Other contenders 

Sheffield United, should they win the play-offs, would fancy themselves to stay up. They have a few years of Premier League experience in recent history and the Championship’s player of the season Gus Hamer, but after manager Chris Wilder left the club in 2021 with them bottom of the Premier League, does he have what it takes to keep them up just as he did in 2019-20?

Sunderland, who enjoyed 10 consecutive top-flight seasons until they went down in 2016-17, could be fairly well-equipped to establish themselves back in the Premier League in the near future. Young players like Jobe Bellingham, Eliezer Mayenda and Chris Rigg could really thrive in a bigger league, or otherwise get sold for big money which could then be reinvested into the playing squad. The Stadium of Light is one of the larger stadiums in the top two divisions, too, and there’s certainly the infrastructure there. 

While they’ve only just been promoted from League One to the Championship, it’s worth including Birmingham City and Wrexham and their ambitious American owners in this conversation, too. Birmingham have just broken the record for the most points won by any English Football League club in a season, have their eyes on back-to-back promotions, and have spoken about having the Second City derby with Villa played near the top of the Premier League. Per chairman Tom Wagner, the club’s revenue is expected to be on a par with that of the Championship teams receiving parachute payments too.

As for Wrexham, celebrity owners Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds would love for the team to become a Premier League force. It’s perhaps not as realistic in the short term, but there’s a lot of potential for the club to grow. 

But all of this means nothing if the current Premier League clubs continue to strengthen. It would probably take a huge points deduction, financial turmoil, or a huge implosion for even a Wolves, West Ham or Everton to go down, let alone one of the teams currently flirting with continental qualification. 

Everyone will have their own thoughts, but Leeds or Sunderland, if the latter does go up, have the infrastructure and backing to thrive. If those at the top of the club have their way, and they kick on this summer, potentially Birmingham could too.

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